PILLAR 02 OF 05 Agenda Minnesota · The Indictment Series
The Charge — Documented. Bipartisan. Sixty Years Running.
North Dakota built a generational boom next door. Minnesota watched from across the border. Both parties. Zero rigs. The same minds. The same result.
In 2014, North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate in the country — 2.6 percent — while the national average was 6.3. In Williston, at the heart of the Bakken oil boom, unemployment fell below one percent. Roughnecks with no college degree walked away with $80,000 to $120,000 a year. Drillers cleared $180,000. The state's nonfarm payroll grew 27.6 percent in five years.

This happened next door. Same geology. Same formation trends. Same type of workers who needed jobs. Minnesota watched every bit of it happen and produced zero rigs, zero wells, and zero oil field wages for the families who could have had them. Both parties held St. Paul during the North Dakota boom. Both parties held Washington. Neither one cleared the runway for Minnesota workers.
2.6%
North Dakota unemployment at Bakken peak — lowest in the nation
<1%
Williston unemployment at peak — while MN Iron Range bled workers
27.6%
ND nonfarm payroll growth in 5 years — documented HUD data
$0
Bakken oil revenue to Minnesota — both parties — same border
$52K
Average Iron Range wage while ND oil workers cleared $120K
ZERO
Oil field jobs created in Minnesota — same formation — different choice
You can't fix a problem
with the same mind
that created it.
"Minnesota can either watch billions of dollars and tens of thousands of high-wage jobs stay on the other side of the border — or we can bring that boom home. The choice is ours, and the clock is ticking."
Brad Kohler · Candidate for Governor of Minnesota · 2026
↓ Who watched — and what ends it
The verdict — same border, two different choices
North Dakota said yes.
Minnesota said let's study it.
Here is the documented result.
The Williston Basin formation trends that produced North Dakota's boom run toward Minnesota's western border counties. North Dakota cleared the regulatory runway. Minnesota's administrations — of both parties — did not. These are the documented outcomes of those two different choices, side by side.
North Dakota — They said yes
The documented result when a state clears the runway.
Nonfarm payroll growth 2009–2014+27.6%
Peak unemployment (2014)2.6%
Williston unemployment at peak<1%
Oil industry economic impact by 2011$30.4B/yr
Direct oil industry jobs by 201141,000
Entry roughneck wage$80K–$120K
McDonald's wage in Williston$15/hr + $500 signing bonus
Wage growth in Bakken counties vs. rest of state+4.85%
Minnesota — They said let's study it
The documented result when the same minds manage the conflict.
Bakken oil rigs operating in MNZERO
Oil field jobs created in MNZERO
Bakken oil revenue to Minnesota$0
Western border county wage growthFlat
Iron Range average wage$52,000
Modern horizontal drilling applied to MN border geologyNever
State regulatory framework for Bakken developmentDoes not exist
Population trend — western MN border counties↓ Declining
North Dakota cleared the runway.
Minnesota watched from the other side.
Both parties. Same border. Different choice.
All North Dakota figures: HUD USER March 2016 · NDSU Petroleum Council Study 2011 · Brandt (2013) Undergraduate Economic Review · Time June 2014
The resolution — a different mind. Months one through six.
The rigs turn.
First jobs arrive.
Months one through six. 2027.
The Bakken pillar has the fastest job-creation timeline in the entire Kohler platform. Unlike mineral mines that take years to permit and build, oil field crews arrive within weeks of regulatory clearance. Brad Kohler clears that runway in the first six months of his administration.
What Kohler does — months one through six 2027
→
Regulatory clearance for Bakken exploration drillingWithin the first six months of the Kohler administration, state regulatory clearance for exploration drilling in Minnesota's western border counties. First rigs operational within weeks of approval.
→
1,000 to 5,000 jobs in the first six monthsWell pad grading, access road construction, pipeline routing, and drilling crews arrive immediately. No degree required. $80,000 entry wage from the first paycheck.
→
Build the regulatory framework from North Dakota's playbookMinnesota does not have to build a Bakken framework from scratch. North Dakota spent 20 years refining bonding structures, well spacing rules, produced water management, and royalty accounting. Kohler adapts that existing framework — years of acceleration built in.
→
The wage floor resets for every employer in the regionWhen oil field wages arrive, every employer in western Minnesota has to compete. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis documented this in North Dakota: retail workers, healthcare workers, teachers — all saw wages rise because every employer had to match oil field competition.
→
15,000 to 35,000 jobs in years three through fiveModeled on the documented North Dakota Bakken trajectory. Oil royalties and extraction taxes begin contributing $1 to $2 billion annually to state revenue. The Iron Range economy looks nothing like it did in 2026.
What these jobs pay — BLS documented wages
Active Bakken and Permian operations · No degree required for most positions
Petroleum geologist$200K
Oil field superintendent$182K
Driller / supervisor$120–180K
Fracking technician$120K
Derrickhand$100K
Entry roughneck w/ OT$80–120K
NO DEGREE REQUIRED FOR MOST POSITIONS
The honest disclosure
The Williston Basin as formally defined by USGS does not include Minnesota. The Kohler platform's Bakken argument is based on formation proximity and undrilled frontier geology — not confirmed Minnesota reserves, because modern horizontal drilling has never been applied to test the question. The job projections are modeled on the North Dakota trajectory. The scenario is plausible. The geology has not been proven on the Minnesota side. That is what the rigs are for.
You can't fix a problem with the same mind that created it.
For 60 years Minnesota has elected the same problem — Democrats and Republicans alike.
The mineral boom was lost for three generations. The Bakken boom that started next door in 2014 — just over a decade ago — is another decade of jobs, revenue, and population loss that indicts the exact same premise. Doing the same thing over and over and voting for a different result.
During those same 60 years, North Dakota built a generational boom on the other side of a border that exists only on a map. The same formation. The same type of workers. The same opportunity. Minnesota watched every year of it go by and cleared the runway for exactly zero rigs, zero hospital expansions, and zero airports for international trade.
That's unacceptable.
While North Dakota built a generational boom next door —
is an empty Iron Range
the Minnesota you want?
Read the Full Case → Back to the Road Map
Sources: HUD USER March 2016 · NDSU Petroleum Council Study 2011 · Brandt (2013) Undergraduate Economic Review · Time June 2014 · Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Bakken wage floor analysis · BLS OEWS 2024 · USGS Williston Basin description
Agenda Minnesota — All Five Pillars
01 · Duluth Complex 02 · Bakken Oil 03 · Safe Schools 04 · Hibbing Airport 05 · Cheap Energy