Kohler 2026 · Case Files · Chapter One of Six
The Domestic Critical Minerals Case
SUPPLY CHAIN
SOVEREIGNTY
Minnesota controls most of America's confirmed nickel, cobalt, and platinum-group metal reserves. The country imports the same materials from the Congo, Russia, Indonesia, and China. The question is no longer whether the minerals exist. It is whether Minnesota will permit and produce them.
The ground is locked.
That is a policy choice.
95%
of confirmed U.S. nickel reserves
sit in northeastern Minnesota
USGS 2025
88%
of confirmed U.S. cobalt reserves
sit in northeastern Minnesota
USGS 2025
75%
of confirmed U.S. platinum-group
metal reserves sit in Minnesota
USGS 2025
Topaz
World's richest known primary
helium deposit — confirmed 2011
Pulsar Helium
95% NICKEL U.S. RESERVES · USGS 2025 88% COBALT U.S. RESERVES · USGS 2025 75% PGMs U.S. RESERVES · USGS 2025 TOPAZ He WORLD'S RICHEST · CONFIRMED 2011 DULUTH NONFERROUS MINES ZERO OPERATING
The sixty-year record
For roughly six decades,
control changed hands repeatedly.
The outcome did not.
Republicans governed St. Paul. Democrats governed St. Paul. Both parties held Washington at various points. The Duluth Complex remained largely undeveloped. This is a documented pattern across administrations, not a partisan attack on either party.
Nonferrous mines operating today
ZERO
In six decades. The USGS has confirmed the deposit. Multiple companies have filed permits. The mines are not operating.
NorthMet permitting process opened
2004
Twenty-two years of environmental review. The federal permitting transparency dashboard shows an estimated completion date of September 2027 — if no further setbacks occur.
Annual mineral revenue on confirmed resource
$300M
Minnesota's current annual mining tax revenue, against a confirmed in-ground resource of $2.3 trillion to $4.2 trillion at 2026 commodity prices.
U.S. cobalt sourced from Minnesota
0%
Minnesota holds 88% of confirmed U.S. cobalt reserves. The U.S. currently imports 100% of its cobalt. 70% of global cobalt production comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
St. Louis County projected population loss by 2075
26,036
Minnesota State Demographic Center projection under current trajectory. The communities above the deposit are projected to continue shrinking.
Average Iron Range wage
$52K
While documented North Dakota Bakken oil field entry wages run $80K to $120K with no degree required — in a state with comparable geology and different permitting choices.
Sixty years later, the ground is still locked. That is the record.
U.S. resource share — USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025
Minnesota's resource position
is not a projection.
It is a confirmed fact.
Nickel · USGS 2025 95%
Of all confirmed U.S. nickel reserves. The domestic supply chain for EV batteries and industrial applications is almost entirely dependent on either foreign imports or this deposit.
Cobalt · USGS 2025 88%
Of all confirmed U.S. cobalt reserves. The U.S. currently imports 100% of its cobalt. Child labor has been documented in portions of the DRC artisanal cobalt supply chain that feeds American electronics and EV battery manufacturers.
Platinum Group Metals · USGS 2025 75%
Of all confirmed U.S. PGM reserves. PGMs are essential for hydrogen fuel cells, catalytic converters, and several defense and semiconductor manufacturing applications.
Copper · USGS 2025 34%
Of all confirmed U.S. copper resource. Required for electric motors, grid infrastructure, and virtually every electrification application in the energy transition.
Helium — Topaz Deposit · Pulsar Helium, 2011 World #1
The world's richest known primary helium deposit, confirmed 2011. A 10.5% helium concentration. Helium has no substitute in MRI machines, semiconductor fabrication, rocket propulsion, or fiber optics. Pulsar Helium signed a Limited Notice to Proceed with Chart Industries in September 2025.
The strategic implication
Many of the supply chains that matter most to U.S. industrial and defense capacity depend on these minerals.
A large share of EV battery, defense system, and semiconductor-related manufacturing relies on nickel, cobalt, and platinum-group metals. Minnesota holds the dominant portion of America's confirmed domestic reserves of all three.

The U.S. currently sources these materials primarily from foreign suppliers: cobalt from the DRC, nickel from Indonesia and Russia, PGMs from Russia and South Africa.
A significant domestic alternative sits beneath northeastern Minnesota — unproduced.
State permitting and policy have been a significant bottleneck to development over multiple decades.
A governor directing state agencies to prioritize and expedite review within existing law is a meaningful lever — one that does not require congressional action.
Current sourcing vs. the Kohler proposal
The choice is not
between mining and not mining.
It is between where.
The minerals that go into American EVs, defense systems, and electronics are being extracted somewhere. The question is whether that somewhere is northeastern Minnesota under U.S. labor and environmental law, or foreign supply chains with different standards and different geopolitical risks.
Current U.S. cobalt and nickel sourcing
Foreign Supply Chains —
The Status Quo
70% of global cobalt from DRCApproximately 100,000 of 140,000 metric tons per year. Child labor has been documented in portions of the artisanal cobalt supply chain. Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025.
Nickel from Indonesia and RussiaIndonesia is the dominant global nickel producer. Russian nickel faces sanctions risk. Neither source offers domestic supply chain security.
PGMs from Russia and South AfricaRussia supplies a significant share of global palladium. A supply disruption from either country directly affects defense and automotive supply chains.
Zero domestic cobalt or nickel production of significanceThe U.S. produces approximately 500 metric tons of cobalt annually — less than one percent of global supply. Minnesota contributes zero.
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. BloombergNEF Transition Metals Outlook 2025.
The Kohler proposal — within existing law
Domestic Development —
State Agencies Directed to Act
Day one: executive orders to all nine depositsDirect the Minnesota DNR, Pollution Control Agency, and Department of Commerce to prioritize and expedite review of all nine confirmed Duluth Complex deposits within existing statutory authority.
U.S. labor law and environmental standards applyMinnesota mining operates under OSHA, EPA oversight, Minnesota state environmental law, and union wage structures — not artisanal conditions.
Domestic supply chain security for critical applicationsProduces cobalt, nickel, and PGMs within the United States, reducing dependence on foreign supply chains that carry geopolitical and human rights risk.
No act of Congress required for state-level actionThe governor's authority over state agency prioritization, permitting timelines, and regulatory coordination is within existing executive power.
Sixty years later, the ground is still locked. The deposits remain undeveloped; state policy is a significant part of the reason.
The valuation — methodology disclosed
From $1 trillion in 2007
to a range of $2.3T–$4.2T in 2026.
Here is every dollar of the difference.
The University of Minnesota Duluth Natural Resources Research Institute produced the original in-ground value estimate in 2007 using 2007 commodity prices and pre-Topaz resource knowledge. Every line below reflects a documented commodity price change or a confirmed resource discovery that post-dates the 2007 baseline. This is arithmetic, not projection.
Component 2007 Baseline 2026 Value Addition Basis
Copper — price more than doubled ($3 → $6.25/lb) $400B $832B +$432B ScienceDirect copper pricing June 5, 2026: +29.9% YoY
Platinum Group Metals — effectively tripled $200B $600B +$400B Commerzbank 2026 forecasts: platinum $1,350/oz, palladium $1,200/oz
Cobalt — strategic supply premium $120B $240B+ +$120–180B USGS 2025; EV demand cycle peak: $40/lb vs $14/lb in 2007
Nickel — battery-grade market did not exist in 2007 $300B $450B+ +$150–200B 2007 used standard LME pricing; battery-grade commands significant premium
Gold — quadrupled ($700 → $3,000+/oz) $20B $80B+ +$60–80B 6 confirmed gold zones in Duluth Complex
Titanium + Manganese — federal critical mineral repricing $110B $165B+ +$80–120B USGS 2025 Critical Minerals List; 40–60% repricing since 2007
Helium — Topaz deposit confirmed 2011 $0 · not yet discovered $100–300B +$100–300B Pulsar Helium / Chart Industries Sept 2025; 10.5% He concentration; $390–117K/mt
Total documented range ~$1.175T $2.3T – $4.2T +$1.1T – $3T All additions sourced above
METHODOLOGY Read before sharing the $4T number
  • The 2007 UMD/NRRI estimate used 2007 commodity prices and pre-Topaz resource knowledge. It is the sourced baseline.
  • This page presents a range of $2.3T–$4.2T. The Kohler campaign uses $4T as the top-of-range figure — not as a state revenue forecast or guaranteed market value.
  • In-ground valuation is not cash flow, reserves, or what Minnesota collects. It is an estimate of what the minerals in the ground are worth at current commodity prices.
  • Revenue projections derived from this resource depend on mine sequencing, throughput, commodity prices at time of extraction, permitting outcomes, financing, and the eventual tax and royalty structure. Those projections are illustrative, not forecasts.
  • Full methodology and sourcing available at KohlerForGovernor.com.
Documented in-ground value range — Duluth Complex at 2026 commodity prices
$2.3 trillion — $4.2 trillion
$4T
Top-of-range scenario · Campaign uses as ceiling, not premise
The midpoint of the documented range is approximately $3.2 trillion. If opponents challenge the $4T ceiling and succeed in arguing for the midpoint, they land at $3.2 trillion. The strategic argument — that Minnesota possesses a dominant share of America's critical mineral reserves and those deposits remain largely undeveloped — does not depend on which number in the range is used.
What Brad Kohler proposes — within existing law
A governor cannot override
federal courts. A governor can
change what state agencies prioritize.
The Kohler proposal operates within existing statutory authority. It does not claim to bypass environmental law or override pending litigation. It claims that a governor directing state agencies to treat Duluth Complex permitting as the highest priority — rather than allowing it to drift through administrative backlogs — materially changes the development timeline.
01
Day One Executive Orders
Direct the Minnesota DNR, Pollution Control Agency, and Department of Commerce to prioritize and expedite review of all nine confirmed Duluth Complex deposits within existing statutory authority. Staff permit reviews as priority work. Eliminate internal delays from administrative backlog.
02
Federal Coordination
Coordinate actively with federal counterparts under the Trump administration's Executive Order 14241 framework, which designated domestic mineral production as a national priority. NorthMet is already a designated federal priority project on the permitting transparency dashboard.
03
All Nine Deposits Simultaneously
Rather than addressing projects sequentially as they arise, the Kohler administration directs parallel expedited review across all nine confirmed Duluth Complex deposits. NorthMet, Twin Metals, Tamarack, and the remaining confirmed sites all advance at the same time.
04
The Jobs and Revenue Consequence
Full development across confirmed deposits projects 75,000+ direct and spinoff jobs at a documented average mining wage of $96,642 per year (BLS). New annual state and local revenue in the $5–8 billion range under an illustrative scenario — against a current baseline of approximately $300 million per year.
The political conclusion
The question is not
whether Minnesota has
the minerals. It does.
The USGS has confirmed 95% of U.S. nickel reserves, 88% of cobalt reserves, and 75% of platinum-group metal reserves in northeastern Minnesota. Those figures are not campaign projections. They are federal geological survey data.

The question is whether Minnesota will permit and sequence their development. That question has gone unanswered for six decades across both parties. The Kohler argument is that a governor can materially change the answer — not by overriding law, but by making Duluth Complex development the explicit highest priority of state agency action from day one.

Any candidate who does not have a specific, executable plan for this resource is implicitly choosing to extend the sixty-year pattern. That is a defensible position. It should be stated as a position rather than the absence of one.
The ground is locked. That is a policy choice. Kohler's argument is that the lock should be removed.
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Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 · University of Minnesota Duluth NRRI 2007 baseline · ScienceDirect copper pricing June 5, 2026 · Commerzbank PGM forecasts 2026 · Pulsar Helium / Chart Industries Topaz Project September 2025 · Minnesota State Demographic Center · Iron Mining Association of Minnesota · Federal permitting dashboard Performance.gov NorthMet Project · USGS 2025 Critical Minerals List · IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 · BloombergNEF Transition Metals Outlook 2025 · Executive Order 14241 January 20, 2025 · Pen to Power investigative series Parts 1–6 June 2026
The Kohler Case Files — All Six Arguments
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